Cutting Edge

By David Blanchard

Expert System Estimates Costs for IBM

IBM Corp. (San Jose, Calif.) has developed the Product Cost Estimator (PCE), an expert system that generates plans for new products. Before developing and marketing a new product, it is crucial to accurately estimate life-cycle costs and revenues to determine anticipated profitability of the product. The rapid evolution of computer hardware has hastened the pace of new product introductions and increased the need for a quick, detailed business planning cycle.

To this end, IBM developed and deployed the PCE, a shell for producing business plans and service cost estimates for new products. It enables the timely exploration of a variety of alternative strategies. PCE has been used in several parts of the business.

Its payoff includes substantial time savings and improved accuracy. Where producing a business plan typically takes days to months at IBM, using PCE enabled the company to do business planning with fewer people in approximately one-tenth the elapsed time, with the same accuracy as previous planning methods.

Improving Computer-Based Training with Hypermedia

GK Intelligent Systems Inc. (GKIS) (Houston, Texas), a developer and marketer of intelligent, adaptive training and performance support systems, plans to integrate new hypermedia authoring tools within its proprietary Smart Support system. GKIS, along with MCC Corp., Hughes Training, Motorola and others, are sponsoring the Hypermedia Presentation Authoring and Composition Technologies (HyMPACT) project.

The term hypermedia refers to the integration of multimedia (text, audio, video) with hypertext-style software links that allow a user to easily navigate or interact with the multimedia presentation. The HyMPACT project is developing a prototype set of hypermedia authoring tools for Windows NT. The tools will have application in a wide range of industrial, manufacturing and educational settings.

Smart Support uses intelligent, adaptive training software to create a personalized learning tool that users can access on an as-needed basis, eliminating the deluge of raw information found in traditional, one-shot training programs. The Smart Support system also includes Smart Support Net, which taps into the infrastructure of leading telecommunications providers to deliver continuous training support.

The Smart Support training programs are interactive and include multimedia elements such as sound, video, animation and graphics. AT&T has provided GKIS with the majority of the research and development on the Smart Support system through its GIS Human Interface Technology Center in Atlanta, Ga.

Port of Singapore Adopts Intelligent Scheduler

The Port of Singapore Authority has developed the Pilot and Tug Scheduler (PATS), an intelligent software system to schedule marine resources. Singapore is a busy port with about 300 vessels calling each day. This expert system scheduler assists human planners in fast, efficient allocation of tug boats and pilots to assist vessels into the port. The system runs 24 hours a day.

Scheduling resources is a multifaceted task. For example, a pilot's task of escorting a vessel into port waters can take one to three hours, depending on the location and size of the vessel, the level of difficulty of the job, and the prevailing conditions. A ship may require up to six tugs to assist with berthing and unberthing at the wharf, and the tug's job may range from 15 to 45 minutes.

PATS' payoff includes reduced planning time; reduced planning staff from two to one; better service; and freeing the human planner for additional tasks.

GM Develops Intelligent Gear Design System

General Motors' Metal Fabrication Division and Manufacturing Center (Warren, Mich.) has developed GMGear, an equation- and knowledge-based generative gear design system. This expert system supports an iterative design process, generating multiple possible design solutions for a gear set, then evaluating and recommending the best design to meet performance requirement, geometric constraints and manufacturing considerations.

The system explores the solution space for multiple key parameters (more than 1,000 combinations for minimally constrained designs) simultaneously. It makes tradeoffs to balance performance while meeting constraints. The system provides a "glass box" view of the design methodology, design decisions and reasoning, value descriptions and sources, and descriptions of terms and equations.

The system speeds up the gear design process up to 95 percent from weeks to a day or less, with better quality designs; captures knowledge from across several GM divisions; creates better understanding of the gear design process; and promotes commonality of terminology and design practices throughout GM.

Contributing editor David Blanchard is editor of Intelligent Systems Report, (216) 677-4210, E-mail: blanchard@lionhrtpub.com.


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