OR/MS Today - February 2001 - Was It Something I Said

February 2001

Was It Something I Said

Killing Time on the Tarmac

By Vijay Mehrotra

My head hurts. I'm coughing and sneezing up a storm. My flight is stuck on the ground. It is cold and snowing in Minnesota, where I've been for the last week, visiting my family for the holidays. I can almost taste the 60s, sunny conditions back in California — it all seems at once tantalizingly close and maddeningly far away. The pilot apologizes once again for the delay, informing us that he's asked twice for de-icing and has gotten no reply. "I don't know what else to tell you folks," he says, sympathetically.

My head still hurts, but I'm trying to make the best of it. I have in front of me a huge manuscript, entitled of "The Art of Modeling With Spreadsheets" by Steve Powell and Ken Baker of the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth. I've been asked by the publisher to review this book, and I am enthusiastic about the topic.

These two guys clearly get it. In their introduction, Powell and Baker make a subtle but critical distinction between: (a) a traditional management science book; (b) a traditional software how-to book; and (c) a modeling book that utilizes both management science techniques and spreadsheet software. It is this third type — a book on modeling of business problems — that they have attempted to write, and I believe that there is definitely a need, and a market, for such a book.

Not only have these guys put a lot of energy into writing this book, but they have helped form INFORMED, the INFORMS Forum on Education, organized summer workshops on teaching management science with spreadsheets, and taught these types of courses to management students for decades.

Their target market is the huge army of business analysts out there, "the millions of people who routinely use Excel or another spreadsheet on the job." The vast majority of these people can definitely benefit from a book that teaches a model-centric view of spreadsheets, with some simulation and optimization sneaked in the through the backdoor.

The challenge, of course, is in writing a book that these business analysts will actually read and learn from. I applaud these guys for taking a shot at it.

My head still hurts. To pass the time, I strike up a conversation with the nice fellow sitting next to me. His spirits are low — he is traveling to California to attend his aunt's funeral. I discover he is a Coca-Cola bottler, and his company has had their Coke franchise since 1932.

I explain what I do for a living. I can tell he doesn't think too much of it. Or rather, he just doesn't generally think about "mathematical modeling of business problems" as having anything to do with his world.

We talk some more, exchanging small business stories and common concerns. His territory is compact, containing only four small rural counties. Despite his modest claims to the contrary, his business still features plenty of challenges. He deals with labor problems, getting the right water into the bottle, the loss of classic old glass bottles that aren't even being manufactured any more and staying abreast of the various new products that Coke distributes.

Turns out this guy actually uses models all the time — he just doesn't think he's using models. His people do quality control on the mixture of secret formula to water, he knows the maximum throughput rate for his bottling line, as well as the time it takes to ramp up to full-speed. In addition, he recently carved up his sales territories to add a salesperson without de-motivating the existing sales force.

The bad news: In a world where the business concept is mature, management's thinking is already solidly systematic, and where growth is slow, there just isn't all that much use for the complex tools and methods that we routinely beat our chests about. My new friend the small Coca Cola bottler, my old friend the sole proprietor of a Saab repair shop, my mother the restaurant entrepreneur, my erstwhile client the manager of a 10-person call center: we do ourselves a real disservice trying to convince them that "our stuff" is the best thing since sliced bread.

Solace: Thinking about the dot-com carnage of the last few months, especially among the e-tailers, I reflect that OR people are by no means the only, or the last, to try to sell something to a market that really doesn't need it.

The good news: My new friend tells me there are only a handful of franchisees like him that are still running their small bottling plants and supplying their traditionally small local regions. Consolidation and vertical integration by Coke have changed the landscape drastically. Complexity keep growing — and creating opportunities for us. Amen.

I dig up the articles that I had printed out before I left for vacation (you know, I'll probably be doing this long after we've all got always-on wireless access to the entire Web.). I come across a Computerworld magazine article entitled "Optimal Results," by Gary H. Anthes. It seems to be all about how OR and IT need to get along with one another so that they can help each other to succeed. The article talks about IT groups in OR departments, OR groups within IT departments and various other organizational structures. "Indeed," writes Anthes, "the most successful companies will be those where OR and IT have established strong bonds of collaboration." Somehow this sounds terribly familiar ("OR and IS: Scenes from a Marriage," WISIS, OR/MS Today, June 1999).

My head still hurts, but at least our plane is finally in the air, taking me toward the sunshine of California. Like the captain said, "I don't know what else to tell you folks."

Vijay Mehrota (vijay@onward-net.com) is the CEO of Onward Inc., in Mountain View, Calif.

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